Quantum Mania is dead. Or is it?
By Jeff Finkelstein
You cannot read the news without coming across articles on the “quantum everything.” Networking, computing, self-driving cars, mobile phones, movies, cereal, a seemingly endless source of things to tag with “quantum.”
You are in a quantum maze of twisty little passages, all alike…
What is this quantum stuff?
Even though research into quantum technologies has been around since the 1960s, advancements made in the past few years have brought it to the fingertips of everyone with an Internet connection and the rest of us luddites who still get a newspaper.
There is much written almost daily about quantum technologies. Yet it remains a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma, dressed up as a reality today. Those who truly understand it have difficulty explaining it without resorting to mathematical formulas where understanding requires degrees most of us do not have. The more they try to explain it, the more confusing it becomes.
Welcome to the Quantum world!
We are still in the early stages of mastering the special physics of the smallest known particles that are creating a revolution which promises capabilities that are paradoxically extraordinarily large. Quantum mechanics explains the way mass and energy interact at the smallest scales, but its rules are quite often counterintuitive and incompatible with what we perceive as reality. The past century has given us a better understanding and beginnings of control over the quantum world and its effects. It has allowed the creation of quantum information sciences (QIS).
The result of work done to date has given us advances with quantum technologies in the fields of information acquisition (sensing), processing (computing), and transmission (networking). These advances have moved the discussion of QIS from the world of academic journals to corporate meetings. The word quantum is spoken by everyone from the CEO to the engineering ranks. Yet, few truly understand what it means and the implications to everyday life. Reread my previous Broadband Library article on the “Shiny Object Syndrome” for more background regarding how this impacts everything we will do for some time.
One thing that is currently certain, topics related to anything quantum are good for getting research papers published in big name scientific journals.
Quantum will become the new normal in technology over time. It is close enough to touch in geological time, just not in our lifetimes.
That to some is a rather provocative statement to make as it is a rather curmudgeonly idea which goes against what those who are banking on their career in QIS want us to believe. Realistically it should deter anyone from becoming immersed in QIS, instead it should help add a touch of reality to something that is so important to our future. Without it how will we explore strange new worlds, to boldly go where Star Trek has told us we can go?
Quantum technologies have been a topic of great interest and excitement in recent years. With its potential to revolutionize various industries, from cryptography to drug discovery, many believe that quantum technology will soon become an integral part of our lives. However, despite the hype surrounding this emerging technology, there are several reasons to believe that quantum computing may not be needed for the next two decades. In this article, I explore these reasons and shed light on the challenges that need to be overcome before quantum computers can truly become practical and widespread.
Current limitations
One of the main reasons why quantum computing may not be needed for the next 20 years is the current limitations of the technology. While quantum computers have shown promise in solving certain types of problems faster than classical computers, they are still in their infancy. The number of qubits, the basic units of quantum information, that can be reliably controlled and manipulated is still relatively small. This limits the complexity of problems that can be effectively solved using quantum algorithms. Additionally, quantum computers are highly sensitive to noise and errors, making it challenging to maintain the integrity of computations over long periods.
Practical applications
Another factor to consider is the availability of practical applications that truly require quantum computing. While there are certain problems, such as factoring large numbers or simulating quantum systems, where quantum algorithms have demonstrated superiority, these applications are still limited in scope. Many real-world problems can be efficiently solved using classical algorithms, and the benefits of quantum computing may not outweigh the costs and complexities associated with its implementation.
One important current use for quantum technologies is quantum key distribution (QKD). QKD provides a method of distributing the secret keys necessary for secure communications. It ensures that the keys remain private between the communicating parties. It relies on what was seen as the greatest challenge with quantum systems, if you disturb them in the least you affect the outcome. If someone hacks into the network to see the keys, they will disturb the quantum states which will introduce errors and reveal that someone has hacked into the system. The very act of looking at the keys will change them, rendering the observation invalid.
Cost and scalability
Quantum computing is an expensive endeavor. Building and maintaining a quantum computer requires significant financial resources and expertise. The current state of the technology makes it challenging to scale quantum computers to a level where they can compete with classical computers in terms of performance and cost-effectiveness. Until the cost of quantum computers decreases significantly and their scalability improves, it will not be economically viable to adopt quantum computing on a large scale.
Alternative technologies
While quantum computing holds great promise, it is not the only avenue for advancing computational capabilities. Classical computing technologies, such as Moore’s Law and the development of specialized hardware accelerators, continue to evolve and improve. These advancements have the potential to bridge the gap between classical and quantum computing, making the need for quantum computers less urgent. Additionally, other emerging technologies, such as neuromorphic computing and DNA computing, offer alternative approaches to solving complex problems.
Ethical and security concerns
The development of quantum computers also raises ethical and security concerns. Quantum computers have the potential to break many of the encryption algorithms that currently secure our digital infrastructure. While this may be beneficial for certain applications, it also poses a significant risk to privacy and security. As quantum computing progresses, there is a need to develop new encryption methods that can withstand quantum attacks. This transition will require significant time and effort, further delaying the widespread adoption of quantum computing.
Conclusion
While quantum computing has the potential to revolutionize various industries, it may not be needed for the next 20 years. The current limitations, lack of practical applications, high costs, alternative technologies, and ethical concerns all contribute to the notion that quantum computing is still in its early stages of development. However, this should not undermine the importance of continued research and investment in quantum computing. As the technology matures and overcomes its current challenges, quantum computing may eventually become an indispensable tool in our computational arsenal. Until then, it is crucial to approach the hype surrounding quantum computing with a balanced perspective, focusing on both its potential and limitations.
Jeff Finkelstein,
Chief Access Scientist,
Cox Communications
Jeff Finkelstein is the Chief Access Scientist for Cox Communications in Atlanta, Georgia. He has been a key contributor to engineering at Cox since 2002 and is an innovator of advanced technologies including proactive network maintenance, active queue management, flexible MAC architecture, DOCSIS 3.1, and DOCSIS 4.0. His current responsibilities include defining the future cable network vision and teaching innovation at Cox. Jeff has over 50 patents issued or pending. He is also a long-time member of the SCTE Chattahoochee Chapter and member of the Cable TV Pioneers class of 2022.
Images provided by author, Shutterstock
