Doctor, Doctor, it hurts when I do this…
By Jeff Finkelstein
In this month’s article I discuss technology but not the technologies themselves. Instead, I’m channeling my inner yogi to discuss the use of technology and how it becomes like an old friend we have a hard time leaving. Someone with whom we enjoy hanging out, getting a beer, talking sports, and have a hard time leaving as it is so comfortable being with them. We don’t have to think much about the future and what it will bring as we are living happily in the present. If you have people like that in your life, be sure to enjoy it as long as you can.
In many ways technology fits into a similar model. We struggle for so long to get people to understand a technology, why we need to fund its creation and deployment, and to continue supporting it as long as it meets our needs. Until one day it no longer does. This creates tension in our lives as we are comfortable with it like an old pair of slippers. Yes, they are worn out and a bit rough around the edges, but they have become part of us.
I’ve thought a few times about opening a “comfort food” restaurant. All those foods we go back to in times of anxiety hoping to recreate those childhood moments when someone would make them for us, and the world would be at peace. Every person has their own preferences, but we share the childhood memories and visceral reaction to the smells as they are prepared. We all have those foods that we go to when stressed or anxious. For me its matzo ball soup, roasted potatoes, green beans, and roast beef. There is something magical with how our minds and bodies respond to them. When we have them, all is right with the world, at least for a little while.
Even though we love those foods, a fundamental problem is if we have them too frequently, they become just another food. The magic is lost. Technology is in many ways similar. We get so comfortable with them we often miss the signs that it is approaching time to change to something that will meet future needs. When we do finally realize that, we get caught in the “analysis paralysis” of knowing we need to move to a new solution but being afraid of it at the same time.
Let us dig in a big deeper and begin with…
Jeff’s Rule #27: The equipment we deploy today becomes the legacy problem of tomorrow
It has been shown that when we deploy a cool technology it becomes our go-to answer and when the time comes to replace it, we drag our feet. There are many reasons why we do it. The result is we hold onto some technologies until they become the problem themselves, which forces us into either choosing something new to fill the gap while we continue evaluation of a long-term replacement, or we continue using it even though we know we are making the problem worse. As has been said, the first step to getting out of a hole is to put down the shovel. You cannot dig yourself out by doing the same thing. Serendipity and hope are not a sound strategy.
When your models show you need to begin the transition to a new technology, you need to back up from there to determine when that process needs to begin. Continuing down the well-trodden path feels safe, but it does not get you closer to your actual goal.
Jeff’s Rule #28: There is little as permanent as a temporary solution
Here’s a quick detour down another maze of twisty little passages which are all alike. Let’s talk about putting in a technology as a stopgap while we are waiting for the real technology we want. It is like a snack that we have before our meal, which fills us up, but means we have to delay eating the real meal while we digest the snack.
The same happens with technology. Dare I say, “DOCSIS 2.0b”? DOCSIS 3.1x (some call it 3.1+, but it is actually just DOCSIS 3.1 as the spec did not contain an actual limit on the number of OFDM blocks) has the potential for a similar challenge. We know we want to get to DOCSIS 4.0 to meet the 10G challenge, but if we get too caught up in filling the gap with something temporary it makes the transition to the actual destination we want to reach more difficult.
I am not saying we should not do DOCSIS 3.1x but be careful when thinking about it as moving away from it in the future may prove challenging.
Jeff’s Rule #25: Wi-Fi is the great leveler
While we tussle with the competitive threats coming at us from all sides, we sometimes forget that in most, if not all cases, a significant number of customers don’t really care what technology is used to provide their Internet service. Yes, there are a few loud voices on forums, but most customers are happy if they have a reliable and consistent Internet connection.
Speed wars are big in the press, but of little value to customers. The only winners at speed wars are the arms dealers. Especially those that sell to both sides. In the end, the in-home experience is wireless for the majority of customers. A billboard speed is rarely achievable on a Wi-Fi network. Over time this will change as Wi-Fi 6 and 7 roll-out, but while the Wi-Fi technology is on an 18–24-month cycle, the consumer changes needed to enable those are far longer.
What I have learned over the years is customers don’t care about refrigeration, they just want ice cubes. Cable, fiber, wireless, all are a means to an end. Can customers get to the video content they want and does it work without issues? When working from home do video conferences look good without any sound issues? Do video games experience good latency and do they play well? As has been said for a long time, the only application that can use gigabit speeds at the moment is the speedtest itself. In my own home with a 1 Gbps symmetrical fiber connection and four 4K smart TVs, eight 4K security cameras, two people playing video games, and two working from home, we use at peak around 60 Mbps downstream. 60 Mbps. 60 megabits per second. Out of a 1 gigabit per second symmetrical service. My average usage over the past month is around 8 Mbps downstream and 800 kbps upstream.
Speed wars are for billboards, not consumers. Capacity is the real game. We need enough capacity such that the sum of all usage can be met with the total available capacity without causing increased latency for customers. For example, in a 400 HHP node with 50% penetration, the total average usage using my numbers as a baseline would be 1.6 Gbps downstream and 160 Mbps upstream. At peak it would be 12 Gbps downstream if everyone had a similar usage pattern, which of course we know is not true. A more realistic number would be the average plus some bandwidth to cover the “ripple” effect, which may get it close to 2 Gbps.
The bottom line with speeds is that while it is important, it is not the only thing consumers focus on when deciding on a provider. After all, getting ice cubes does not require a knowledge of refrigeration, but if you get bad service from your refrigerator you will likely not buy from that company again.
Jeff Finkelstein
Chief Access Scientist,
Cox Communications
Jeff.Finkelstein@cox.com
Jeff Finkelstein is the Chief Access Scientist for Cox Communications in Atlanta, Georgia. He has been a key contributor to engineering at Cox since 2002 and is an innovator of advanced technologies including proactive network maintenance, active queue management, flexible MAC architecture, DOCSIS 3.1, and DOCSIS 4.0. His current responsibilities include defining the future cable network vision and teaching innovation at Cox. Jeff has over 50 patents issued or pending. He is also a long-time member of the SCTE Chattahoochee Chapter and member of the Cable TV Pioneers class of 2022.
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